Last Thursday, Grex Lagman withdrew his candidacy for Albay Governor to give way to Noel Rosal. Lagman, elected as Vice Governor of Albay in the 2022 elections after the winner, Noel Rosal, was kicked out of the elective post by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) for violation of the Omnibus Election Code in relation to the disbursement and release of government funds during the prohibited period before a regular election.

Rosal, who secured a commanding 65% of the vote in the 2022 elections, now faces a battle not just for office but for the confidence of Albay voters. His challenger, Joey Salceda, brings his extensive political career and a clean slate to the fray, making this contest a defining moment for the province.

Rosal’s Disqualification and Its Implications

Rosal’s disqualification stems from allegations of election law violations during his previous campaign. Although he remains eligible to run due to a pending appeal, the legal shadow looms large over his candidacy. For many voters, this uncertainty poses the question: is Rosal worth the risk?

The disqualification could either strengthen Rosal’s base or push undecided and pragmatic voters toward Salceda. The outcome hinges on how Albayans interpret this legal challenge—either as a political ploy or as a legitimate concern about governance.

Shifting Voter Sentiments

Voter behavior in this high-stakes election may pivot on several key factors:

1. The Swing Voter Factor: Swing voters, often driven by concerns over stability and governance, may lean away from Rosal. For these voters, the risk of electing a governor who could later be unseated is a significant deterrent. Rosal’s disqualification becomes not just a legal matter but a practical consideration for those who prioritize uninterrupted leadership.
2. Rallying the Base: Among Rosal’s loyal supporters, the disqualification might reinforce their commitment. Many see the legal challenge as a politically motivated attack on a leader they admire. For these voters, Rosal represents a continuation of policies and programs that they believe have positively impacted their lives.
3. Urban vs. Rural Dynamics: Urban voters, particularly in cities like Legazpi and Daraga, where Rosal has historically performed well, may continue to back him despite the controversy. Conversely, rural voters, who have consistently supported Salceda in his congressional campaigns, may see him as a safer and more experienced alternative.

Salceda’s Advantage

Salceda, a three-term governor and incumbent congressional representative, capitalizes on a reputation of steady governance and economic expertise. His clean track record and established voter base in rural areas make him a formidable contender. As a veteran politician, he appeals to voters who value stability and experience, positioning himself as a risk-free choice amid Rosal’s legal troubles.

The Generational Divide

Generational preferences may also influence the election outcome. Younger voters, often drawn to progressive candidates, might see Rosal’s legal troubles as an unfair obstacle to change. Meanwhile, older voters, who value tradition and stability, may gravitate toward Salceda’s seasoned leadership.

The Stakes for Albay

This election is not just about choosing between two prominent figures; it is a referendum on leadership, integrity, and the province’s future. Rosal’s appeal hinges on his ability to reassure voters that his legal challenges will not derail his governance. Salceda’s campaign rests on presenting himself as the stable, proven leader Albay needs.

The disqualification dilemma has transformed the gubernatorial race into a test of voter priorities: loyalty versus pragmatism, change versus continuity. As Albayans head to the polls, their decision will shape not only the province’s political landscape but also the trajectory of its governance for years to come.

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